Global production remains under pressure. According to the latest data from the World Steel Association (worldsteel), global crude steel production for the 70 reporting countries totaled 157.9 million metric tons in May 2026, a slight decline of 0.3% compared to the same month last year. The year-to-date figure for January–May 2026 stands at 773.1 million tons, down 1.5% year-on-year
Regional performance shows a sharp divergence. North America recorded a significant production increase of 15.6% in May, with the United States alone posting a 9.2% rise to 7.5 million tons. In contrast, the Middle East experienced a steep contraction of 19.4%, while production in the CIS region (including Russia and Ukraine) fell by 4.8% . Among the world's top producers, China's output declined by 2.7% to 84.4 million tons, whereas India's production grew by 1.9% to 14.1 million tons, reinforcing its position as a key growth market.
The global steel market faces persistent structural challenges. The OECD's Steel Outlook 2026 report projects that global steel excess capacity will reach 745 million tonnes by 2028, approaching levels last seen during the steel crisis a decade ago. Planned capacity additions of up to 139 million tonnes through 2028 represent a 5.7% increase from 2025 levels, while global demand growth is expected to remain sluggish at around 0.9% per year through 2030 . A key driver of this oversupply is the disparity in government subsidies. The report highlights that in 2024, the median Chinese steel firm received 15 times more in subsidies relative to its asset size than producers elsewhere, up from 10 times in 2023.
Exports and trade measures are intensifying. With weak domestic demand, Chinese steelmakers exported a record 131 million tonnes in 2025-a 153% surge from 2020-effectively flooding international markets . The OECD analysis indicates that trade measures, such as anti-dumping and countervailing duties, are being circumvented. Evidence suggests a pattern where Chinese semi-finished steel exports to Southeast Asia surged by 300% in 2025, only for finished products from ASEAN countries to then increase exports to OECD markets, effectively bypassing the original trade actions.
Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic in North America. Despite these global headwinds, the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) survey shows that steel buyers' sentiment remains in "very optimistic" territory. The Future Steel Buyers' Sentiment Index held steady at a year-and-a-half high of +69, while the Current Sentiment Index remained close to multi-year highs . This optimism is tempered by concerns over high steel prices and ongoing trade uncertainties . As S&P Global notes, "global steel prices are supported by policy rather than demand".
Asia-Pacific supply outpaces demand. S&P Global analysis confirms that Asia-Pacific steel supply continues to outstrip demand, leading to intensified competition. India remains a bright spot with consumption expected to grow at roughly 8%-10% annually over the next five years, while China's oversupply is expected to persist for at least the next one to two years due to the prolonged property sector downturn . Conversely, countries like Japan and Korea are seeing their steelmakers leverage investments in the tariff-protected U.S. market to boost profitability.
This market update is based on reports from the World Steel Association, OECD, S&P Global, and Steel Market Update as of late June 2026.
