The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that my country exported 10.341 million tonnes of steel in May 2026, an increase of 843,000 tonnes from the previous month (up 8.9% month-on-month); cumulative exports for the January–May period totaled 44.554 million tonnes, down 8.1% year-on-year.
In May, my country imported 451,000 tonnes of steel, a decrease of 14,000 tonnes from the previous month (down 3.0% month-on-month); cumulative imports for the January–May period totaled 2.255 million tonnes, down 12.2% year-on-year. In terms of trade patterns, my country's steel trade remains dominated by net exports, though the volume of net exports continues to contract year-on-year. In May, net steel exports totaled 9.89 million tonnes, down 2.1% year-on-year-a decline that narrowed by 7.1 percentage points compared to April; the cumulative net export volume for the January–May period stood at 42.299 million tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%.
Furthermore, the EU has officially implemented its carbon tariff alongside new regulations for steel trade; these measures-including drastically reduced duty-free import quotas, doubled tariffs on volumes exceeding quotas, and new rules on tracing product origins-have significantly raised the cost of Chinese steel exports to Europe. The UK has also announced plans to tighten steel import quotas and raise tariffs starting in July, further elevating market entry barriers in these key Western markets.
Meanwhile, the impact of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has deepened; what began as a driver of rising ocean freight rates has evolved into a substantial contraction of local end-market demand. Domestically, the export licensing system for steel has operated smoothly, effectively curbing the outflow of low-end steel products and encouraging the industry to shift toward lower volumes and higher quality.
Overall, while the global manufacturing sector remains in expansion mode, the momentum of demand is gradually slowing. Chinese steel retains a distinct price advantage, ensuring the successful fulfillment of existing overseas orders. Regarding the statistical baseline, domestic steel exports totaled 9.68 million tonnes in June 2025; the relatively low figure from the same period the previous year serves as a key factor supporting a projected slight year-on-year rebound in exports for June 2026. However, this anticipated recovery does not stem from a fundamental improvement in overseas demand. Escalating global trade protectionism and persistent geopolitical risks remain the core long-term constraints on steel exports, making a significant rebound in export volumes unlikely in the near future.
