On April 28, the domestic steel market continued its volatile-but-upward trend, with flat products leading the gains. With inventories having declined for six consecutive weeks and high input costs providing firm support-bolstered further by strong pre-holiday restocking efforts in the manufacturing sector-hot-rolled coils and medium-to-heavy plates outperformed construction materials significantly, highlighting a distinct divergence within the market.
The futures market strengthened with a divergent pattern. The benchmark hot-rolled coil contract closed at 3,394 yuan/ton, posting a slight increase; meanwhile, the benchmark rebar contract hovered narrowly around 3,185 yuan/ton. Consequently, the price spread between coils and rebar continued to widen, indicating a clear preference among investors for flat steel varieties. On the raw materials front, coking coal and coke prices fluctuated at high levels, while iron ore stabilized and began to rebound; the rigid support provided by these input costs remained robust, reinforcing steel mills' strong inclination to hold firm on their pricing.
In the spot market, the prevailing theme was "construction materials stable, flat products strong." The national average price for hot-rolled coils stood at 3,408 yuan/ton, rising by 10–20 yuan on the day; the average for medium-to-heavy plates reached 3,440 yuan/ton, showing a slight uptick amidst general stability; and the average for rebar was 3,370 yuan/ton, experiencing only minor localized fluctuations. Flat products in the North and Northwest regions led the gains-bolstered by demand from infrastructure and manufacturing sectors-while lower-priced resources in the East and South regions saw smooth transaction volumes.
Inventory reduction continued in earnest. Total inventories across the five major steel product categories amounted to 17.0256 million tons, marking a weekly decline of 621,200 tons (a 3.5% drop) and extending the downward trend for the sixth consecutive week. Within this total, although the rate of decline for flat product inventories slowed slightly, social inventories continued to deplete as restocking demand from the manufacturing sector was unleashed, thereby improving the supply-demand balance. Construction material inventories also declined in tandem; however, weak demand from the real estate sector capped their potential gains, resulting in a relatively weaker performance compared to flat products.
In the short term, as the pre-May Day holiday restocking cycle draws to a close, the confluence of cost support, continued inventory reduction, and resilient demand for flat products suggests that steel prices are more likely to rise than fall, and the current trend favoring flat products is unlikely to change. The market is expected to maintain a volatile-but-upward trajectory in the near term; operationally, traders are advised to adopt a strategy of "quick entry, quick exit," while end-users should restock on an as-needed basis. Following the holiday, market participants should focus closely on the sustainability of demand and the price trends of raw materials.
